EOS: Forget About the Price, The Party is in RAM Speculation
Just weeks after the launch, the EOS market price has stalled - but there is another source of speculation.
EOS is offering another source of speculation while the token’s market price is stagnant: buying and trading RAM. Just like the world of crypto coins, this market for digital real estate is making some rich, and some suddenly turn to the losing side.
RAM is needed for #EOS account creation, allowing speculation on it cripples adoption. it's a death spiral.
Over the weekend, the RAM market went wild once again, doubling the price from 0.2 to 0.2 EOS per Kb. The price of RAM, a feature not so popular among price speculators, can potentially affect the running of apps, but also the creation of new accounts. According to rumors, if the price of RAM rose really high, creating a new EOS account could be steep - up to $100. A couple of weeks ago, RAM prices stood only at 0.015 EOS per Kb. Just a few days ago, a new EOS account cost about $10, and with the current rate of growth, the price may not be the limit.
RAM, a resource provided by Block Producers, is becoming scarce not because of distributed apps running on the network, or issuing too many tokens, but because of hoarding.
However, hoarding may turn sour at any time - the supply of RAM is a scarce resource, but Block Producers can convene and alter the supply, acting in a manner similar to the OPEC oil producers. But because computer resources are more agile, RAM supply may double overnight, and crash prices. A Redditor, NoLandBeyond77, warned:
“...There is no statement or written rule anywhere to say that BP's will make it official before upgrading their RAM stacks, which means overnight in a simple conference call if they decide to upgrade the RAM capacity, if they only double the size it means the price will drop to half, if they upgrade to x3,x4 you're in danger of getting stuck with a huge quantity or RAM as selling will mean that you sell with a loss.”
On the bright side, an additional supply of RAM would also solve the problem of too expensive account creation and airdrops. For now, EOS New York has displayed the readiness to be transparent about its RAM levels, purchases and sales, in order to make the market smoother:
But the move is just due to goodwill, and there is no text in the lengthy EOS constitution regarding the creation and supply of RAM.
In addition to the wild speculation of RAM, and the subsequent crashes, the EOS market price is also volatile. Right now, EOS has recovered to $7.95 after dropping to $7.11 at the end of last week - which additionally puts pressure on the price of airdrops and using the EOS network.
Additionally, over the weekend, more and more of EOS trading has switched to Tether (USDT), with the share expanding to more than 49%, starting from around 20% a few weeks ago. Thus, the EOS market price is seeing a specific speculation and its own source of liquidity, and may move contrary to Bitcoin prices.
I think the #EOS launch is the first time in blockchain history where the devs fundamentally screwed up the incentives. RAM speculation makes it infeasible to run an app on EOS, and exchanges voting for BPs with their own funds makes all BPs servants to the exchanges...
There are also predictions of a potential connection between market prices and RAM prices. In dollar terms, if using the EOS network becomes too expensive, it is possible EOS prices may be pushed downward to make up for the difference.
But the volatility of the RAM market may also mean creating a dApp or a token will not be accessible to anyone at any time, as promised, but be constrained by the complex rules of the EOS economy.
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